Abductive reasoning (or Inference to the Best Explanation) starts with an observation or set of observations and then seeks to find the simplest and most likely explanation.
How it Works
Unlike deduction (certainty) or induction (probability based on frequency), abduction is about explanation.
Observation: The grass is wet. Possible Explanations:
- It rained.
- The sprinklers went on.
- Someone spilled a bucket of water.
Context: The street is also wet. Inference: It rained. (This is the best explanation given the context).
Usage
- Medical Diagnosis: Doctors use symptoms to infer the most likely disease.
- Scientific Method: A hypothesis is often an abductive inference from anomalies in data.
- Detective Work: Sherlock Holmes often used abduction (though he called it deduction).